Tuesday, November 04, 2008

What are the odds!

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11 comments:

Stephen said...

I'd say 1 in 20,000,000? That is amazing!

Brian A said...

Assume a 5 second time frame for both to take a photograph, and assume 1/100 second shutter speed.
That means 500 possible picture taking events for each individual over the 5 second interval.
So, if you take your event as the fixed variable, then the chance the other individual would take a picture at the same time you did, is one in 500. Or about .002 (.2%)

A variation on the question: What are the chances 2 people share the same birthday? (1 in 365)

bigd said...

You made my head hurt Brian A. Thanks a lot!

Flash2Crash said...

Brian...not quite right. We do get an extra day every four years. Also, if you have 50 people in a room, chances are at least a couple of them will share a birthday. So, would it be a 1 in 50 chance? And the flash bulb...either it's on or off, so it'd be a 50/50 chance...or not.

Brian A said...

f2c:
50 people in a room: chances are ~97% two will share a common birthday.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_paradox

regarding the odds of the pictures occurring at the same time, I stand by my number: approx 1 in 500 chance.
Your number would be accurate if asked to figure the outcome of event occurring that is a single event in time, and can result in 1 of 2 possible outcomes (coin toss -heads or tails- for example).

Probability and Statistics is a fascinating study. I do not know it very well and often have to rely on reference material. It is frequently counterintuitive. That makes it all the more interesting.

NISMO-FO said...

You guys r friggin kidding right?!

NISMO-FO said...

Wasn't being a d!ck, just found it funny y'all actually did the math and THEN put it all on paper (here). LOL

Brian A said...

My feelings are hurt.
You made me feel like a nerd. :(

austin said...

Camera flashes often last longer than the actual shutter speed of the camera, so without knowing the shutter speed of the camera taking the picture, and the flash length coming from the camera in the car, it's undeterminable.

Keep in mind that many newer cameras fire the flash twice for a single picture - once to meter the scene, then again when the actual picture is taken.

Darryl Cannon aka "killboy" said...

Look at the big brain on Brad! ;)

RC 51 Mark said...

Nerd Alert !
1slik you crack me up !